Extensive social distancing required: the paper that led to Britain’s U-turn on coronavirus policy

Mild mitigation measures will not be enough to stop a massive spike in coronavirus cases overwhelming the health system, argues a paper released by researchers at Imperial College London.

Policies such as widespread social distancing, quarantining of people with exposure and the closure of schools and universities will need to be in place for many months to have any chance of seriously suppressing COVID-19 cases, the paper argues.

“The world is facing the most serious public health crisis in generations. Here we provide concrete estimates of the scale of the threat countries now face,” says Professor Neil Ferguson, head of the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics at Imperial College.